Shocks, Crises, and False AlarmsAn essential new guide to navigating macroeconomic risk. The shocks and crises of recent yearspandemic, recession, inflation, warhave forced executives and investors to recognise that the macroeconomy is now a risk to be actively managed. Yet unreliable forecasting, pervasive doomsaying, and whipsawing data severely hamper the task of decoding the landscape. Are disruptions transient and ephemeral, or permanent and structural? False alarms are costly